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This study compares three reanalysis datasets – CARRA, Icebox, and RÁV2 – against observations of temperature, wind, precipitation, and radiation fluxes over a twenty-year period (1 September 1999 – 31 August 2019).

New machine learning weather model from Google explained with cats and old TVs.
Recently released GenCast model has made its way into traditional media. While it’s not the first successful AI model to emerge in the recent years, it stands out for its extraordinary accuracy and its innovative approach to ensemble forecasting that leverages the architecture of its underlying network—a conditional diffusion model.

In 2023 we started the adventure of building our own machine learning weather models. The goal of our first experiment was to create a high-resolution weather model for Iceland. As the backbone architecture we chose the ClimaX weather model proposed by Microsoft.

The weather in Iceland 1994-2011 has been downscaled at a horizontal resolution of 3 km with the ARW-WRF atmospheric model with boundary data taken from the atmospheric analysis of the ECMWF.

The overall goal was to enhance Belgingur’s weather forecasting system by integrating it with a 3D/4D-variational data-assimilation module and to develop tools to disseminate forecasts, from a plethora of providers, in a unified manner as well as make the forecasts available to end-users through a novel fleet management system. We also used deep learning methods to develop a novel renewable energy production model and a tool to create multilingual forecasts using direct weather model output.

Belgingur offers a range of medium to high resolution wind forecasts that can be transformed into energy production estimates. These estimates can be optimized by using operational data. The wind forecasts can also be adapted for direct use as input to existing wind power prediction software.

SARWeather offers search and rescue operators online on demand high resolution weather forecasts anywhere in the world, enabling them to respond quickly to emergency situations where time and accurate information can make all the difference.